Op-Ed: How A Democrat Can Win The Nobel Prize Trump Can’t

by Scott Phillips, Author

Where Trump fails, Democrats can succeed.  Democrats have a golden opportunity to shape the political narrative, maximize pressure on Vladimir Putin to end his war in Ukraine, and just possibly win the Nobel Prize that Donald Trump cannot.

To understand why, start with the proposal last year by Gary Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, two of the most prominent Russian opposition leaders in exile.  They advocated building a community of pro-Western Russians in the West.  They called for granting this ‘Free Russia’ community a dedicated passport and visa to any Russian willing to emigrate and declare their support for a Ukrainian victory and a Russia without Putin.  Their hope is to build a movement to put Putin under pressure and to influence a post-Putin era.

Fostering a Russian opposition in exile may not be enough to deter Vladimir Putin anytime soon.  Yet, what Kasparov and Khodorkovsky’s proposal for mass emigration did do was touch on one of Putin’s greatest fears and vulnerabilities:  Russia’s coming population decline.  Herein lies a strategy that could give the West the leverage that it is missing today.

This novel strategy hinges on a simple fact:  Russia’s fertility and long-term demographic profile, like much of the world’s, is on a downward trajectory.  The Kremlin has called this demographic trend “catastrophic for the future of the nation.”

This means America and Europe have more leverage than they realize.

Consider some basic facts.  Prominent population models forecast a rapid decline in Russia’s population over the next several generations.

The UN Population Division’s World Population Prospects 2024 report shows a projection of Russia’s population declining to 126 million by 2100 from 145 million now.  That is nearly 20 million fewer Russians than today.  This would be challenging on its own.

Seattle’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) might just scare Russia even more.  The IHME’s reference model shows a drop in Russia’s population from 145 million today to 106 million in 2100.  That’s 40 million fewer Russians in just three generations.  That’s the good news version.  Another IHME forecast predicts a population that could drop to barely 90 million by 2100.  You can see both forecasts below and you can try this tool yourself at: https://vizhub.healthdata.org/population-forecast/.

Source:  Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2026

These models all have assumptions that can be debated.  But the reality that won’t go away is that Russia’s fertility rate is now just 1.41 births per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.  No forecast yet accounts for the impact of the Ukraine war on Russia’s population.  It is likely to be significant.

Demographic fears have reportedly haunted Putin for 25 years.  He is quoted as saying that having more children is a matter of ‘ethnic survival’ for Russia.

Putin leads the world in promoting pronatalist policies.  In September 2024, Putin famously ordered Russian workers to have sex during lunches to encourage more babies.   He has promoted policies to encourage high school girls to get pregnant, drop out of school and have children.  This is unimaginable in the West, but state policy in Russia.

The result so far?  Live births per month reportedly hit a 200-year low this past spring.  Putin’s efforts are failing.

When Kasparov and Khodorkovsky proposed granting visas to millions of Russian emigres, they unwittingly pointed the West directly at the Putin regime’s Achilles heel.

Every Russian that leaves Russia is one less person to form a family.   That means even fewer Russian descendants than the population models now show.  Millions leaving to oppose Putin would compound what the Kremlin already calls catastrophic to Russia’s future.

Normal demographic trends may reduce Russia’s population by 20-40 million or more by 2100.  A Free Russia visa that entices 10 million or more to leave in the next decade could reduce the future Russian population by an additional 30-50 million.

As a demographer in Ukraine recently told me, this is an outcome that would destroy Russia.

A Free Russia visa could reduce Russia from 145 million today to as low as 50 million by 2100, a devastating drop of nearly 65%.  A Russia with just 50 million could not sustain an army, much less maintain standard infrastructure or even hold the vast territory that makes up Russia today.  If there was ever an existential threat to the Russian state, this is it.

An American or European program to offer Russians political asylum in large numbers would be nonviolent, legal, fair, and consistent with Western values and match past pressure on Soviet authoritarianism.  It would also be utterly terrifying to Vladimir Putin.  His entire rationale for invading Ukraine was based on rebuilding Russia’s past predominance in the world.  An outcome that reduces Russia to a fraction of its current population and a failed state is not the role in history he craves.  Leaving it off the table is an act of political negligence.

All of this means there is far more leverage to end the Ukraine war than anyone realizes:  Simply suggesting a Western program to offer political asylum to millions of Russians seeking freedom in the West is a game changer.

In America, Donald Trump and the GOP have proven incapable of standing up to Putin or ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Democrats now have an opportunity to present an alternative strategy that highlights the Administration’s failure and offers a path forward.

Exposing the demographic vulnerability of Russia to mass emigration is a strategy that would immediately give the West the ability to stop Russia’s war and save Ukraine from disaster.  It could also work as a purely rhetorical strategy to troll Putin and instill doubt.  Simply talking about it could undermine his will to keep fighting.

Putin is vulnerable.  The West has leverage.  The existential threat to Russia’s future of accelerated population decline in addition to sanctions and arms supplies, could be enough to change Putin’s calculations and end the war in Ukraine.

Ironically, the Democrat who plays this rhetorical card could be the one in line for the next Nobel Peace Prize, the prize Donald Trump most wants and is least capable of earning.

BIO:

Scott Phillips is the author of The American Dream vs. Vladimir Putin.  He visited Ukraine in June.  He is an author and lives in Portland, Oregon.  You can find Scott’s writing at https://scottphillipsus.com/

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